{"id":133371,"date":"2025-06-30T21:09:04","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T00:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gysfm.com.ar\/inicio\/sebastian-menescaldi-en-julio-vamos-a-tener-mas-presion-sobre-el-dolar\/"},"modified":"2025-06-30T21:09:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T00:09:04","slug":"sebastian-menescaldi-en-julio-vamos-a-tener-mas-presion-sobre-el-dolar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gysfm.com.ar\/inicio\/sebastian-menescaldi-en-julio-vamos-a-tener-mas-presion-sobre-el-dolar\/","title":{"rendered":"Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi: \u00abEn julio vamos a tener m\u00e1s presi\u00f3n sobre el d\u00f3lar\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div id=\"article-content\">\n<p>El economista y director de la consultora EcoGo, <strong>Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi<\/strong>, dialog\u00f3 con Canal E y analiz\u00f3 el reciente informe de <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/perfil.com\/noticias\/economia\/jp-morgan-critico-con-milei-aconseja-salir-de-la-deuda-argentina-al-menos-hasta-las-elecciones-de-octubre.phtml\">J.P. Morgan<\/a> y las perspectivas para el segundo semestre econ\u00f3mico en Argentina, con especial foco en la presi\u00f3n cambiaria, la actividad econ\u00f3mica, el cr\u00e9dito y el rol del Gobierno.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEl informe de J.P. Morgan est\u00e1 buscando <strong>anticiparse a lo que puede ocurrir en el segundo semestre<\/strong>, que es muy distinto a lo que pas\u00f3 en el primer semestre\u201d, explic\u00f3 Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi. \u201c<strong>La oferta de divisas va a caer <\/strong>y la demanda probablemente, si bien no hay turismo, pero si previo a las elecciones<strong> va a aumentar<\/strong>\u201d, agreg\u00f3.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>\u00bfEl fin del carry positivo?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, advirti\u00f3 sobre una posible reversi\u00f3n del carry positivo: \u201cProbablemente lo que era el carry positivo que tuvo, fue el negocio que, si quer\u00e9s, marc\u00f3 J.P. Morgan en su momento, <strong>el carry positivo se podr\u00eda dar vuelta<\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"vrudo\" class=\"vrudo\" src=\"https:\/\/rudo.video\/vod\/yihgC0ruBUI?volume=0\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" webkitallowfullscreen=\"true\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Contenido embebido\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Sobre las posibles herramientas que podr\u00eda utilizar el Gobierno, Menescaldi se\u00f1al\u00f3: \u201cEn el corto plazo <strong>le queda la herramienta eventualmente de la intervenci\u00f3n<\/strong>, a trav\u00e9s de los futuros, para mantener lo m\u00e1s calmo posible lo que sea el mercado cambiario\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Fuerte demanda de d\u00f3lares ante la llegada del aguinaldo<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Sobre el impacto de los aguinaldos, anticip\u00f3: \u201cHasta el 4 de julio las empresas van a pagar aguinaldos y vas a ver probablemente una gran cantidad de personas <strong>que van a estar buscando dolarizar parte de sus ahorros<\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Y aunque todav\u00eda podr\u00eda haber liquidaci\u00f3n del agro, el director de la consultora EcoGo aclar\u00f3: \u201cHasta el 17 de julio m\u00e1s o menos se estima <strong>que podr\u00edan liquidar esos d\u00f3lares<\/strong>. Bueno, <strong>podr\u00edan compensar parte de los pesos <\/strong>que ir\u00edan de los aguinaldos que podr\u00edan eventualmente dolarizarse\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>En un escenario de presi\u00f3n cambiaria, advirti\u00f3 que, \u201cel Gobierno est\u00e1 impulsando extra\u00f1amente <strong>un marco donde la pol\u00edtica monetaria parece que va a ser mucho m\u00e1s restrictiva<\/strong>\u201d. Y a\u00f1adi\u00f3: \u00abEn julio <strong>vamos a tener m\u00e1s presi\u00f3n<\/strong> sobre el d\u00f3lar\u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script>\n                !function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)\n                {if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?\n                    n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};\n                    if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version='2.0';\n                    n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;\n                    t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];\n                    s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,'script',\n                    'https:\/\/connect.facebook.net\/en_US\/fbevents.js');\n                window.paywallConfig.facebook_pixel=\"1000228364089342\"\n            <\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El economista y director de la consultora EcoGo, Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi, dialog\u00f3 con Canal E y analiz\u00f3 el reciente informe de J.P. Morgan y las perspectivas para el segundo semestre econ\u00f3mico en Argentina, con especial foco en la presi\u00f3n cambiaria, la actividad econ\u00f3mica, el cr\u00e9dito y el rol del Gobierno. \u201cEl informe de J.P. Morgan est\u00e1 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":133372,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-133371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacionales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi: &quot;En julio vamos a tener m\u00e1s presi\u00f3n sobre el d\u00f3lar&quot; - GYS NOTICIAS |<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/gysfm.com.ar\/inicio\/sebastian-menescaldi-en-julio-vamos-a-tener-mas-presion-sobre-el-dolar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi: &quot;En julio vamos a tener m\u00e1s presi\u00f3n sobre el d\u00f3lar&quot; - GYS NOTICIAS |\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El economista y director de la consultora EcoGo, Sebasti\u00e1n Menescaldi, dialog\u00f3 con Canal E y analiz\u00f3 el reciente informe de J.P. Morgan y las perspectivas para el segundo semestre econ\u00f3mico en Argentina, con especial foco en la presi\u00f3n cambiaria, la actividad econ\u00f3mica, el cr\u00e9dito y el rol del Gobierno. \u201cEl informe de J.P. 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